THE Monetary Board approved the grant of temporary regulatory and rediscounting relief measures for banks and other financial institutions supervised by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas.

In a statement, the Monetary Board said it approved the relief measures to enable BSP-supervised financial institutions (BSFIs) to extend the same relief measures to their clients, borrowers, and employees.

Under the approved measures, banks and financial institutions will exclude exposure of affected borrowers from the computation of the past due loan ratios submitted to the BSP.

This means banks and other financial institutions can extend payment due dates for their clients’ personal loans which include credit cards, housing, and auto loans.

Companies may also avail of payment extensions for their corporate loans.

As of yesterday, Bank of the Philippines islands, RCBC and Eastwest Bank have all announced 30-day payment extensions with due dates from March 15 to April 15, 2020.

The Monetary Board also “strongly encouraged” BSFIs to temporarily “suspend all fees and charges imposed on the use of online banking platforms or electronic money, including those imposed on the use of Instapay or PesoNet electronic fund transfer.”

“This will enable consumers to facilitate banking transactions during the COVID-19 situation,” the Monetary Board said.

The Monetary Board said it will also allow staggered booking of allowance for credit losses for loans extended to affected borrowers for a maximum period of five years; non-imposition of monetary penalties for delays in the submission of all prudential reports to the BSP for a period of six months; and, moratorium on monthly payments due to the BSP, without penalty, for a period of six months.

BSFIs will also be allowed to provide financial assistance to affected officers.

For all rediscounting banks, the Monetary Board said they are given 60-day grace period to settle the outstanding rediscounting obligations with the BSP, upon application.

They are allowed to restructure their obligations with the BSP, on a case-by-case basis.

Lastly, on the renewal of rediscounting line or availment of rediscounting loans, the eligibility criteria on reserve requirement is relaxed.

Benjamin Diokno, BSP Governor, said they recognize the potentially significant impact of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) to the general public, including the individual and corporate clients and employees of BSFIs.

“This pandemic has severely disrupted business operations due to measures implemented like lockdown situation, localized work suspension, heightened health and safety risks faced by employees and customers by the National Government, local government units concerned and the businesses themselves in order to control the transmission of COVID-19,” Diokno said.

BSFIs are given one year from 8 March 2020, the date of declaration of the President of the state of public health emergency under Presidential Proclamation No. 922 to avail the regulatory relief measures.

The period of eligibility may be extended depending on the developments of the COVID-19 situation.

BSFIs are expected to ensure that the regulatory relief to be availed is suitable to their operations, situation, and condition.

THE Philippines is expected to grow at a slower pace, as well as other countries in Asia Pacific, as coronavirus implications continue to pose risks to global economies, credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service said yesterday

From a previous forecast of 6.1 percent, Moody’s now sees the Philippine economy growing by only 5.4 percent.

This is more than a percentage point lower than the low end of the government’s full-year target range of between 6.5 and 7.5 percent.

Against the actual, this is also lower than the 5.9 percent GDP growth of 5.9 percent for 2019 and 6.2 percent for 2018.

But the Philippines is not the only country in the whole Asia-Pacific region seen to experience slower growth this year due to the effects of COVID-19.

Among the emerging economies, China, India, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Macau, ri Lanka, Cambodia, Papua New Guinea, Laos, Mongolia, Maldives and Solomon Islands are all expected to experience a slowdown in their economies.

Among the advanced economies, Moody’s also revised lower its forecasts for Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong and New Zealand.

“Our baseline scenario assumes declining consumption levels and continuing disruptions to production and supply chains in the first half of 2020, followed by a recovery in the second half of the year,” said Christian de Guzman, a Moody’s senior vice president.

“In the short run, this is playing out as both negative supply and demand shocks, and the longer the disruptions last, the greater the risk of a global recession,” De Guzman said.

He said rising infection rates would further impede global sentiment, heightening asset price volatility and tightening financing conditions, which could snowball into a deeper economic contraction.

Moody’s noted dampening of domestic consumption demand in affected countries exacerbates disruptions to supply chains and cross-border trade of goods and services.

“The longer the disruptions last, the greater the risk of global recession becomes. Risks skewed to the downside,” De Guzman said.

A period of lower oil prices, he said, will further weigh on the economic and fiscal fundamentals of oil exporters, while mitigating the trade shock for importers.

“Policy buffers are being tested.  A number of governments and central banks have announced countervailing measures, including fiscal stimulus packages, policy rate cuts, and regulatory forbearance.  However, the effectiveness of policy easing will be blunted by measures to contain the outbreak, and policy space is constrained for some sovereigns,” De Guzman said.

A number of governments have already announced measures to cope with the impact of the coronavirus, and Moody’s expects there will be more fiscal stimulus as the extent of the economic fallout becomes clearer.

“However, some governments — mainly frontier markets — may be constrained by their high indebtedness and limited access to funding,” De Guzman said.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the novel coronavirus outbreak to have a negative impact on the economy, specifically on the tourism and trade sectors.

“The coronavirus, as you know, has caused a lot of anxieties and restrictions on travel. The Philippine economy is not immune to that. I think about the major sector that comes to my mind would be tourism. The other impact would be on the global value chain,” said Yongzheng Yang, IMF resident representative.

But Yan said they have maintained their full-year GDP forecast of 6.3 percent and they expect the growth for the first quarter to be around that range.

Yang explained with China as one of the largest sources of tourism for the Philippines, “that is going to be negatively affected and will certainly have negative impact on the economy.”

According to the latest data released by the Department of Tourism (DOT), from the total 684,063 inbound travelers in November, tourists from China reached 126,785 , a 30.02 percent rise compared to the previous year.

China is the country’s second biggest source of international visitors.

South Korea remains the country’s top source market with 176,185 visitors, 37.71 percent increase from last year’s 127,935 arrivals for November.

The US remained as the third biggest source of visitors while Japan placed fourth.

The Taiwanese market posted 53,784 arrivals for November, a marked 40.76 percent growth from the previous year.

Since the start of February after officials confirmed the Philippines’ first case of coronavirus , local carriers have temporarily cancelled flights to and from China.

China was last year’s second largest export market with $9.628 billion, 13.7 percent share; and the largest source of imports at $24.536 billion, 22.9 percent share.

As far as economic policies are concerned, Yang said the Monetary Board’s decision last week to reduce the key rates of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) by 25 basis points “is a good response.”

“Macroeconomic policy has a role to play. If the impact would be larger, there can be further consideration of responses. There’s a lot of uncertainty going on and this situation will be watched very closely to see how the world responds,” Yang said.

“We need to monitor this development and be ready to take necessary actions to support the economy and support the industry that might be affected by the outbreak,” Yang added.

The IMF on Monday provided a positive assessment of the Philippines following the 2019 Article IV Consultation Staff Report. The assessment is based under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement where IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic development and policies.

“I believe the IMF’s assessment of the domestic economy reflects multi-sectoral efforts to foster inclusive economic growth. In line with this, the BSP will continue promoting price stability, financial stability, and an efficient payment and settlement system while pursuing legislative initiatives that will enhance our capacity to pursue our mandates,” said BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno.

The report said despite the slowdown in the first half of 2019 due to temporary government underspending and external trade uncertainty, the Philippine economy continues to perform well, having regained momentum in the second half of the year.

The report noted that inflation continued to decline to settle at 2.5 percent in December 2019. Bank lending growth slowed down but stabilized at 10.5 percent in September 2019 or as of the end of the IMF mission.

Meanwhile, gross international reserves reached $88 billion as of end-2019, which is 200 percent of the IMF’s reserve adequacy metric.

“The IMF outlook on the country is positive. The Philippine economy continues to be a strong performer despite recent headwinds,” the IMF Report said.

In a preemptive move, the Monetary Board yesterday decided to reduce the key rates of the Bangko Sentral by 25 basis points as prospects for the global economy show signs of weakness emanating from geopolitical tensions, trade imbalance and a virus epidemic.

Benjamin Diokno, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, yesterday said the BSP’s overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) facility now stands at 3.75 percent.

The interest rates on the overnight lending and deposit facilities were reduced to 4.25 percent and 3.25 percent, respectively.

“The Monetary Board also observed prospects for global economic growth have weakened further amid geopolitical tensions. It noted the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus could have an adverse impact on economic activity and market sentiment in the coming months,” Diokno said.

On the local front, Diokno said the latest baseline forecasts indicate a broadly steady path of inflation for 2020 and 2021, with average inflation remaining within the target range of between 2 and 4 percent.

“Inflation expectations also continue to be firmly anchored within the target over the policy horizon. Meanwhile, the risks to the inflation outlook continue to tilt slightly toward the upside in 2020 and toward the downside in 2021,” Diokno said.

He explained upside risks to inflation over the near term emanate mainly from potential upward pressures on food prices owing in part to the African swine fever outbreak late last year and tighter international supply of rice.

He also added that there continues to be the burden on the economy posed by the ongoing Taal volcano eruption and the aftermath of typhoon Tisoy.

But he noted that uncertainty over trade and economic policies in major economies continue to weigh down on global demand, thus mitigating upward pressures on commodity prices.

“Given these considerations, the Monetary Board concluded the manageable inflation environment allowed room for a preemptive reduction in the policy rate to support market confidence. While recent demand indicators still point to a firm outlook for the domestic economy, the Monetary Board believes a policy rate cut would provide additional policy support to ward off the potential spillovers associated with increased external headwinds,” Diokno said.

Diokno said the BSP will remain watchful “over emerging price and output conditions to ensure that monetary policy settings remain consistent with price stability while supporting sustained non-inflationary growth over the medium term.”

Francisco Dakila, BSP Deputy Governor, said the Monetary Board noted a slight increase in inflation forecast for this year. From 2.9 percent last December, BSP now sees inflation to average at 3 percent. For 2021, the BSP maintained its forecast of 2.9 percent.

Inflation grew faster in January to 2.9 percent, driven by price increases in the heavily-weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages index, the Philippine Statistics Authority on Wednesday said.

This is the highest inflation recorded since June 2019 when inflation was posted at 2.7 percent.

January’s figure is also higher than the 2.5 percent posted in December last year but much slower than the 4.4 percent figure for January last year.

Nicholas Antonio Mapa, Senior Economist of ING Bank, Diokno opted to carry out a preemptive rate cut citing the impending slowdown tagged to the now ongoing 2019-nCoV episode.

“(He) previously indicated that the virus outbreak could shave up to 0.3 percentage points to growth and the monetary easing was carried out with an eye to bolster growth momentum given the government’s higher growth aspiration of 6.5-7.5 percent GDP,” Mapa said.

Mapa, however, said that inflation is still expected to remain within target, giving the Monetary Board more room to ease.

“The still benign inflation outlook affords the central bank proper scope to continue easing monetary policy with Diokno primed to carry out a second rate cut sometime within the first half of the year.  Diokno had previously telegraphed up to 50 basis points worth of policy easing in 2020 and we expect him to cut policy rates again, as early as the May meeting,” Mapa said.

He said the BSP “will likely shelve plans to adjust the reserve requirement (RR) given that recent cuts to the RR have not translated directly into bank lending activity.”

Meanwhile the Department of Finance (DOF) said the country’s inflation rate could slow down moving forward amid lower oil prices, while less demand for petroleum following the novel coronavirus outbreak will dampen inflationary pressures.

“The downtrend in crude oil prices starting January could slow down inflation going forward,” the DOF said.

“Lower global economic growth due to the coronavirus outbreak will also reduce petroleum demand and thus, dampen inflationary pressures,” it added.

The DOF also said food supply needs to be scaled up to reduce inflationary pressures.

“In a discussion with finance secretary Carlos Dominguez over the phone, secretary William Dar of the Department of Agriculture agreed to adopt measures to boost food supply especially now that the open season for fish has started,” the DOF said.

The National Economic and Development Authority earlier said the government remains vigilant as upside risks have emerged from several unexpected phenomena and despite a stable inflation outlook for 2020.

“Despite the relatively stable inflation outlook, we cannot be complacent, as the balance of risks remains on the upside for 2020 due to the effects of the Taal Volcano eruption, spread of African Swine Fever, and novel coronavirus,” said Ernesto Pernia, socioeconomic planning secretary.

As expected, inflation grew faster in January to 2.9 percent, driven by price increases in the heavily-weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages index, the Philippine Statistics Authority yesterday said.

This is the highest inflation recorded since June 2019 when inflation was posted at 2.7 percent.

January’s figure is also higher than the 2.5 percent posted in December last year but much slower than the 4.4 percent figure for January last year.

“Food and non-alcoholic beverages index registered an annual increment of 2.2 percent which primarily contributed to the uptrend of inflation in January 2020,” PSA said.

The report added that alcoholic beverages and tobacco increased by 19.2 percent; clothing and footwear, 2.7 percent; housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, 2.5 percent; transport, 3.0 percent; recreation and culture, 1.5 percent; and education, 4.7 percent.
On the other hand, PSA noted a slower annual increase of 2.6 percent in restaurant and miscellaneous goods and services index. The rest of the commodity groups retained their previous month’s annual rates.

Excluding selected food and energy items, core inflation went up further by 3.3 percent in January of this year. Core inflation was observed at 3.1 percent in December 2019, while it was 4.4 percent in the same period in 2019.

Benjamin Diokno, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, said January’s figure was within the BSP’s forecast range of 2.5 to 3.3 percent.

“This is consistent with the prevailing assessment that inflation is expected to gradually approach the midpoint of the target range in 2020 and 2021,” Diokno said.

He added the BSP will consider all the latest developments in the Monetary Boards’s policy setting meeting scheduled for today.

The Monetary Board decided to maintain the interest rate on the BSP’s overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) facility at 4.0 percent. The interest rates on the overnight deposit and lending facilities were also kept unchanged at 3.5 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively.

Nicholas Antonio Mapa, ING Bank senior economist, said they expect inflation to inch higher and “bounce then settle” as reverse base effects from the 2019 inflation lows nudge prices higher in 2020.

“Risks noted by the BSP are the potential rise in crude oil prices as well as trade war disruptions to the supply chain. For the full year, ING still expects inflation to remain within target and average 3.2 percent (for 2020) but peaking in the third quarter,” Mapa said.

Despite the uptick in inflation, Mapa said they expect the BSP to cut policy rates by 25 basis points todaywith the BSP 2020 inflation forecast pegged at 2.9 percent.

“Given the backdrop for slowing global growth, upside risks to the inflation outlook are dampened considerably with crude oil prices tanking on expectations for weaker global growth and depressed oil demand from China.  With inflation still expected to remain within target and as global growth is likely to be hampered by the spillover effects from the recent 2019-nCoV episode, we expect the central bank to resume unwinding its previous policy tightening to bolster growth momentum and chase the 6.5-7.5 percent growth target,” Mapa said.

Jun Neri, lead economist of the Bank of the Philippine Islands, said they also expected inflation to “maintain its upward trajectory in the first month of 2020.”

“Despite the recent decline in oil prices, our outlook for inflation is still the same. If the Novel Coronavirus crisis is resolved in the 1st quarter, oil prices may climb in the coming months together with the recovery in China. Furthermore, most of the favorable base effects from rice tariffication may disappear in the second quarter. Given these possibilities, our average inflation forecast for 2020 is still at 3.4 percent,” Neri said.

With inflation still below 3 percent, Neri said the BSP may cut its policy rate also by 25 basis points today.

“Governor Diokno said recently that 50 basis points cut is still on the table given the likelihood of within target inflation this year. However, a follow through RRP cut may be more challenging given the upside risks to inflation emanating from the possibility of higher rice prices and the implementation of excise taxes. Depreciation pressures from portfolio outflows, lower tourism receipts, and potential slowdown in remittances may also prevent the BSP from cutting all the way down to 3 percent. As we have said before, the risk of significant portfolio outflow is high when inflation is above the policy rate,” Neri stressed.

Ernesto Pernia, Socioeconomic Planning secretary, said the government remains vigilant “as upside risks have emerged from several unexpected phenomena and despite a stable inflation outlook for 2020.”

“Despite the relatively stable inflation outlook, we cannot be complacent, as the balance of risks remains on the upside for 2020 due to the effects of the Taal Volcano eruption, spread of African Swine Fever, and novel coronavirus (2019-nCov),” Pernia said.

He added that the country has intensified its preparedness for disaster risk response, including the formulation of recovery and rehabilitation plans, like in the areas affected by the Taal Volcano eruption.

“We should also increase investments in climate and disaster-resilient farm technologies and practices, and promote the adoption of such among farmers and fisherfolk,” Pernia said.

“We remain attentive to the recent developments abroad which could affect domestic pump prices. Over the medium- to long-term, it is essential for the country to explore alternative and cheaper energy from local sources to become less import-dependent,” he added.

The PSA report also said inflation in NCR slowed down to 2.7 percent in January. Its annual rate was posted at 2.8 percent in December 2019, and 4.6 percent in January 2019.

This downtrend was effected by the slowdown in the annual increase of food and non-alcoholic beverages index at 3.4 percent during the month.

Meanwhile, inflation in areas outside NCR went up further by 3.0 percent. In the previous month, inflation in AONCR was recorded at 2.4 percent and in the same month in 2019, 4.4 percent.

Except in Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), whose inflation remained at 2.8 percent, all the regions in areas outside NCR posted higher annual mark-ups in January 2020.

The highest inflation was still observed in Region V (Bicol Region) at 3.9 percent, while the lowest remained in Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) at 1.0 percent.

BDO Unibank, Inc. (BDO) yesterday started offering fixed-rate bonds totaling P5 billion as part of the bank’s continuing efforts to diversify its funding sources and support its lending activities.

The offer period will run up to January 24, with the issue date targeted for February 3, 2020.

The minimum investment is P100,000 with increments of P50,000.

BDO, in a statement, said the latest offer is a component of the P100 billion bond program approved by the Board of BDO in August 2018 and follows the P35 billion fixed rate bond issuance in February last year.

The bonds will have a tenor of 2.5 years and will be priced at 4.408 percent.

BDO said interest will be paid quarterly, calculated on a 30/360 count basis.

The Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corp. Ltd. is the sole lead arranger and bookrunner for the issue, while BDO Unibank Inc., BDO Private Bank Inc. and HSBC are the selling agents.

A fixed-rate bond is a long-term debt instrument that pays a fixed coupon rate for the duration of the term. As long as the bond issuer does not default or call in the bonds, the bondholder can predict exactly what his return on investment will be.

BDO’s P35-billion issuance last year was the largest ever single peso bond issuance by a Philippine bank, following the bank’s $150 million Green Bond in 2018, its $1.2B stock rights offering in 2017, and its $700-million senior note issuance, also in 2017, which is considered to be the largest dollar issuance by a Philippine bank to date.

Rising prices of electricity, petroleum products and selected food items caused inflation in December to surge to 2.5 percent from 1.3 percent the previous month, the Philippine Statistics Authority yesterday said.

The heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages index posted an increase of 1.7 percent, PSA added.

Likewise, the annual change of the transport index picked up by 2.2 percent during the month, from 2.4 percent annual decline in November 2019.

Higher annual increases were also noticed in the indices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco at 18.4 percent; housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, 1.9 percent; and furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house, 3.1 percent.

Inflation was observed at 1.3 percent in November 2019 and 5.1 percent in December 2018.

Excluding selected food and energy items, core inflation escalated by 3.1 percent in December 2019. Core inflation was recorded at 2.6 percent in the previous month, while it was 4.7 percent in the same period of 2018.

But despite December’s uptick, inflation for the whole year averaged at 2.5 percent, at the lower end of the Bangko Sentral’s full-year target range of between 2 and 4 percent.

Benjamin Diokno, BSP Governor, said the latest inflation outturn is “consistent with the BSP’s prevailing assessment that inflation is expected to approach the midpoint of the target range in 2020 and 2021.”

BSP has also set the same target range for this year and next year.

“The risks to the inflation outlook are on the upside for 2020, but are tilted to the downside in 2021. The volatility in global oil prices and the potential impact of the African swine fever (ASF) outbreak are the main upside risks to inflation. Meanwhile, the impact of global trade and policy uncertainty as well as geopolitical tensions continue to be the main downside risks to inflation,” Diokno, in a statement, said.

Ernesto Pernia, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary, said the country ended last year with steady inflation “but the government must remain vigilant and proactive in managing the impact of potential sources of price pressures this year such as typhoons, continuing presence of ASF om the country, and the heightened conflict in the Middle East.”

Pernia stressed the recovery and rehabilitation plans for the typhoon-affected areas “must be immediately implemented and the production support programs for the affected farmers and fisherfolk must be fast-tracked.”

“Over the medium to long-term, the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector must increasingly adopt climate and disaster-resilient technologies and best practices. Climate and disaster risks should also be considered in the program and project designs in the sector,” Pernia added.

He also mentioned other priority areas such as assisting farmers to shift to high-value, short-maturing, and high-yielding crops; and sustaining biosecurity measures and procedures until the ASF is fully eradicated. This will bring back confidence of consumers in pork products.

Pernia also cautioned that the escalating tension in the Middle East may disrupt global oil supply which could lead to a surge in the prices of petroleum products and overall inflation.

Pernia further said that in the short-term, demand management and alternative sources of petroleum products should be explored, and over the medium to long-term, shifting away from fossil fuel and import dependence should be encouraged.

Nicholas Antonio Mapa, Senior Economist of ING Manila, the BSP was successful in keeping price gains in-check for the most of 2019 but “recent adverse weather conditions may have caused food prices to jump higher to close out the year with the food component showing a 1.7 percent increase in prices from no gain in November.”

“We expect inflation to edge higher in 2020 as reverse base effects kick in while the scheduled excise tax of fuel products take effect sometime in early 2020.  This moves in-line with our expectation for inflation to “bounce then settle” with headline inflation rising back to the 3 percent handle and remain stable for the rest of 2020.  Factoring the reverse base effects, we expect inflation to average 3.2 percent and as high as 3.4 percent should oil prices edge higher due to possible supply side disruptions,” Mapa said.

Mapa said the higher inflation in December “should keep the BSP on notice as they gauge price developments going into 2020.”

“The recent escalation in tension between the US and Iran may exert additional inflationary pressure on the headline print with global crude oil prices rising at a time when excise taxes are levied on fuel products in January 2020.  Despite these developments, BSP Governor Diokno was quick to downplay a possible upside breach although he did note that risks to the inflation outlook are on the “upside”.  We continue to believe that the BSP will have the scope to ease monetary policy further in 2020 with the first rate cut slated for the February meeting.  The Peso may enjoy some short term strength with some market analysts pulling back expectations for a central bank rate cut given the upside surprise to inflation,” Mapa said.

At its meeting on monetary policy stance last month, the Monetary Board decided to maintain the interest rate on the BSP’s overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) facility at 4.0 percent. Accordingly, the interest rates on the overnight deposit and lending facilities were kept unchanged at 3.5 percent and 4.5 percent.

The Monetary Board’s decision was based on its assessment of a benign inflation environment for the duration of the policy horizon, or six weeks.

The next meeting will be on Feb. 6.

PSA noted inflation in the National Capital Rregion (NCR) rose further by 2.8 percent in December 2019. Inflation in the area was posted at 1.5 percent in November 2019 and at 4.8 percent in the same month of the previous year.

Prices of consumer items in areas outside NCR, likewise, accelerated further by 2.4 percent in December 2019. In the previous month, inflation in AONCR was registered at 1.2 percent and in December 2018, 5.3 percent.

Inflation in Region II (Cagayan Valley) and Region IX (Zamboanga Peninsula) during the month went up by 1.6 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively, after exhibiting negative annual rates of 0.1 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively, in November 2019.

All other regions in AONCR registered higher annual mark-ups during the period.

The highest inflation among the regions in AONCR was seen in Region V (Bicol) at 3.3 percent, while the lowest was observed in Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) at 0.8 percent.