JAKARTA- Indonesia posted a larger-than-expected trade surplus last month, as imports unexpectedly contracted on a yearly basis while exports slowed, official data showed on Thursday.
November imports were down 1.89 percent on a yearly basis to $18.96 billion, compared with a prediction of a 7 percent increase in a Reuters poll.
Southeast Asia’s largest economy booked a $5.16 billion surplus in November, compared with the poll’s median forecast of a $4.26 billion surplus.
Exports were worth $24.12 billion, up 5.58 percent on a yearly basis, the slowest increase since October, 2020 and below the poll’s 9.50 percent growth forecast.
Riding on high global commodity prices this year, Indonesia has enjoyed an export boom.
However, export growth has been slowing since June amid moderating prices of commodities like palm oil, nickel and iron ore.
Imports of consumer goods fell 16.2 percent on a yearly basis in November.
The value of exports for the January-November period, at $268.18 billion, surpassed the country’s highest record for annual shipments, which was reached last year at $231 billion.
Indonesia’s economy expanded at its fastest pace in more than a year in the third quarter, underpinned by improved investment and government spending, but economists warned of tougher times ahead.
Southeast Asia’s largest economy grew 5.72 percent year-on-year, according to data from Statistics Indonesia. That was up from a 5.44 percent pace in the second quarter but below the 5.89 percent expansion forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.
Unadjusted for seasonal factors, gross domestic product (GDP) rose 1.81 percent from the previous three months, above the 1.62 percent increase forecast in the poll.
Investment grew at its fastest pace in more than a year, private consumption remained robust, government spending shrank more slowly and exports rose in the double-digits, even as their net contribution to GDP fell as imports also increased.
“Economic growth in Indonesia accelerated in the third quarter, but this is likely to be as good as it gets,” Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics, said.
“We expect lower commodity prices, tighter monetary policy and elevated inflation to drag on growth over the coming quarters.”
While Indonesia’s economy has seen an export boom this year, analysts expect a bleaker outlook as tightening monetary policy and rising inflation globally risk derailing the world economy.
At home, Bank Indonesia has raised interest rates by a total of 125 basis points since August to contain inflation, which hit a seven-year high in September after the government raised subsidized fuel prices that month.
Highlighting the risks, the country’s chief economic affairs minister, Airlangga Hartarto, said demand for some exports such as textile and furniture products has already slowed, while commodity shipments could be affected by moderating prices. –Reuters
