‘… this election, absent any major earthshaking development, won’t be decided until a week or so before the polls, with so many potential game changers such as Biden’s health, Trump’s many legal cases, global flashpoints and the economy.’
ON November 5, a Tuesday, Americans will troop to the polls to elect the president of the United States — and he could be the same guy who was #45, or the incumbent who is #46.
Prior to these years’ polls, only #45 failed to win a second successive term in office; #44 (Obama) did, as did #43 (Bush 2) and # 42 (Clinton).
So if # 46 wins, he will be matching the record of three of four of his predecessors, repeating history for the fourth time out of five tries. But if #45 wins, then he will be the modern-day Grover Cleveland. Cleveland, you see, was a Democrat who was elected as the 22nd president in 1885 but lost his reelection bid to Republican Benjamin Harrison, who in turn became # 23. However, Harrison lost his reelection bid to — you guessed it — Cleveland, who then became the 24th president of the United States and, so far at least, the only president to serve two non-consecutive terms.
(It is worth noting that Republican Benjamin Harrison won the presidency in 1889 despite receiving a smaller popular vote than Democrat Grover Cleveland because, like Republican Trump over Democrat Clinton in 2016, Harrison won more electoral votes).
Now, which of history will repeat itself?
The US electorate (and many around the world) was treated to a first glimpse of the two men involved in this rematch. And by all measure, the incumbent, Joe Biden, fared worse in the debate than his challenger, Donald Trump, mainly in terms of how he looked and how he delivered his message. While both men are just six years apart in age, Biden looked and sounded far, far older that night, triggering anxiety over the question of whether he had the physical and mental stamina to be president for four more years.
Not surprisingly, some members of the Democratic Party began to worry after the debate, even going so far as publicly saying that Biden should step aside in favor of someone who could energize the base and help deliver the votes. But many others opined that one debate performance cannot undo the nearly four years of the administration’s achievements, arguing further that Biden’s age does not make Biden in any way less unfit for the presidency.
I’ve heard so many non-Americans comment that the election is over if Biden does not step aside. I am told that even a global investment bank analyst shares this opinion — who even says that it is Biden and not Trump who is the candidate of the rich. (???!!!)
Following US presidential elections has been my lifelong passion. Theodore White’s The Making of the President 1960 and 1964 introduced me to the Kennedy squeaker over Vice President Richard Nixon and the Johnson landslide over Barry Goldwater. I was already conscious of and could already partly recall the 1968 elections, particularly the assassination of Robert Kennedy, the riots outside the Democratic Party convention in Chicago, and Nixon’s squeaker over Vice President Hubert Humphrey.
Nixon won by a landslide in 1972 in a country torn apart by the Vietnam War, then had to resign due to Watergate. For a while, Americans got fed up with Washington DC so Jimmy Carter, a Georgia governor, was elected in 1976. But Carter lost to Ronald Reagan, a much older yet more charismatic fellow former governor, who won reelection four years later while making fun of his age. Reagan gave way to his vice president, the first George Bush.
But the economy was bad so Bush lost his re-election bid to another governor, Bill Clinton, who ran as a “new” (meaning not heavily liberal) Democrat. After Clinton’s two terms came the two terms of the second Bush (also a governor) who then in 2008 gave way to the freshman senator from Illinois, Barack Obama.
Then 2016 happened: the Republican Party establishment was upended by Donald Trump, while the Democratic Party establishment was so secure in the early polling lead of Hillary Clinton that then missed out on shifting loyalties of minorities and labor and even women — who either stayed home or even voted for Trump, giving him enough electoral votes to become the 45th president. These natural Democratic constituents returned to the Democrats in 2020, denying Trump a second term. Keeping them inside the fold of the Democratic Party is a key element of victory in November.
But the bottom line is that America is a deeply divided nation. The right of center is divided, with the MAGA Republicans keeping the Establishment Republicans at bay. The Democrats, too, are split between the “progressives” represented by young congresswomen and the aging Bernie Sanders on the one hand and more Establishment Democrats on the other — with only the fear of Donald Trump keeping them together.
And because of this deep divide, it will be the growing segment of “independent,” “unaligned,” or “uncommitted” voters who will largely determine the fates of Biden and Trump, especially so in the six or seven swing states that will determine who gets the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.
That’s why I insist it’s still a dead heat, and this election, absent any major earthshaking development, won’t be decided until a week or so before the polls, with so many potential game changers such as Biden’s health, Trump’s many legal cases, global flashpoints and the economy.
So sit tight – and bring out lots and lots of popcorn. It’s a dead heat and will probably go down to the wire.
