LITTLETON, Colorado- Turkey has spent eight of the first nine months of 2024 as Europe’s largest producer of coal-fired electricity, overtaking Germany and Poland as it cranked coal burning for power.
Turkey generated a record 88 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity from coal during January through September, according to energy think tank Ember, which was 2 percent more than during the same period in 2023.
That total was 28 percent above the 69 TWh generated in Germany and 36 percent above the 65 TWh generated in Poland, Europe’s next largest coal-fired power producers.
With power systems across Northern Europe set to make further cuts to coal use in power generation going forward, Turkey’s lead in Europe looks set widen, and may establish southern Europe as a major hub for coal use in the region.
Turkey’s emissions from coal-fired power also scaled new highs so far in 2024, hitting 88.4 million tons of carbon dioxide and 1.5 million tons more than in the same months last year.
Coal-fired emissions in Germany were 71.5 million tons of CO2, and were 67 million tons in Poland, which in both cases were the lowest on record for the January to September period.
With coal-fired generation and emissions declining in most other European nations, Turkey’s share of the region’s coal-fired use and emissions climbed to a record of just over 19 percent so far this year, Ember data shows.
Continued coal burning during the winter – when demand for heating in Turkey peaks – may push Turkey’s share of regional emissions above 20 percent for the first time, especially if power systems elsewhere continue to curb coal use during that period.
Around 35 percent of Turkey’s electricity so far this year was generated from coal, which was the country’s largest single power fuel source.
That share was down from around 37 percent in 2023, due to higher output this year from both hydro dams and solar farms which allowed power firms to lift output from clean energy sources.
However, both hydro and solar output are set to fall to their annual lows over the coming winter in Turkey, which will force power suppliers to boost coal use towards year-end to meet system demand.
And Turkey has to import coal to meet roughly 40 percent of its coal-fired needs, due to a persistent shortfall in domestic coal supply compared to domestic coal demand.
Over the first nine months of 2024, Turkey’s total coal imports were 16.7 million metric tons, according to ship-tracking data from Kpler.
That total is 5 percent less than during the same months in 2023, but volumes are likely to climb over the final months of the year as power firms stock up ahead of peak heating demand.
Russia is Turkey’s main coal supplier, accounting for around 70 percent of Turkey’s coal imports, followed by Colombia, Australia and the United States.
Turkey’s dependence on coal for 35 percent of its electricity is greater than the 20 percent share in Germany and 13 percent share for Europe as a whole, but is less than the 56 percent coal-share in Poland.
However, Poland’s coal share is down from close to 74 percent in 2022, and looks set to continue falling rapidly as Poland’s power firms deploy growing volumes of renewable power across the country’s grids.
In contrast, Turkey’s reliance on coal for power looks set to keep rising, especially as the country’s total power demand continues to rise more quickly than power firms can lift clean supplies.
So far in 2024, Turkey’s electricity demand has climbed by 5 percent from the same months in 2023, compared to 2.4 percent growth for Europe as a whole, 3 percent growth in Poland and 0.4 percent growth in Germany.
