By Kevin Yao
BEIJING- China’s economy grew at the slowest pace since early 2023 in the third quarter, and though consumption and factory output figures beat forecasts last month a tumbling property sector remains a major challenge for Beijing as it races to revitalize growth.
Authorities have sharply ramped up policy stimulus since late September, but markets are waiting for more details on the size of the package and a clearer road map to put the economy back on a solid longer-term footing.
The world’s second-largest economy grew 4.6 percent in July-September, official data showed, a touch above a 4.5 percent forecast in a Reuters poll but below the 4.7 percent pace in the second quarter.
“China’s Q3 2024 data is not a turn-up for the books,” said Bruce Pang, Chief Economist at JLL. “The performance aligns with market expectations, given the weak domestic demand, a still struggling housing market, and slowing export growth.”
“The stimulus package announced at the end of September will take time and patience to boost growth over the next several quarters,” he added.
Officials addressing a post-data press conference on Friday expressed confidence the economy can achieve the government’s full year growth target of around 5 percent, underpinned by further policy support and another cut to the amount banks must hold in reserve.
“Based on our comprehensive assessment, the economy in the fourth quarter is expected to continue the stabilization and recovery trend that occurred in September. We are fully confident in achieving the full-year target,” Sheng Laiyun, deputy head of China’s statistics bureau, told reporters.
Policymakers could take some comfort in forecast-topping industrial output and retail sales data for September, but the property sector continued to show sharp weakness and underline markets’ calls for more support steps.
“We would downplay the importance of better-than-expected key economic indicators in September given that the structural weakness in the property and household sectors remains largely unaddressed,” said Betty Wang, an economist at Oxford Economics.
“The recently announced stimulus measures could cushion the downside risks to next year’s growth, but are unlikely to reverse the structural downturn.” – Reuters
