OCTA says region must stay under GCQ
THE National Capital Region (NCR) must stay under general community quarantine even if the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation in the region has seen stark improvement in recent weeks, the OCTA Research Team yesterday said.
In a television interview, OCTA Research fellow Guido David said: “We think the GCQ is appropriate for now, but we can add capacities to businesses.”
David said the number of average daily new cases in the NCR is down to 620 from June 21 to 27, “a significant decrease already from the peak of about 5,500 cases back in early April.”
“We are almost back to pre-surge levels of about 400 to 500. We are getting close there,” he added.
In its latest COVID-19 bulletin, the OCTA said the number of new cases per day in Metro Manila is down by 9 percent from the 731 average cases per day reported from the previous week of June 14 to 20.
“The NCR is classified as a moderate-low risk area,” it said.
David said the decrease corresponds to NCR’s reproduction number of 0.75, positivity rate of 7 percent, and average daily attack rate of 4.5.
OCTA likewise said the NCR currently has a 36 percent hospital bed occupancy, as well as 45 percent ICU bed occupancy rate.
But despite the improvement in numbers, David said Metro Manila must stay under GCQ in July because of the threat of the Delta variant of COVID-19, which may cause a surge far worse than that already seen in Metro Manila.
“This is a definite game changer. We are more concerned with the Delta variant but we are also monitoring Delta plus variant,” he said.
“If we allow it to enter, it will cause a surge that is worse in the NCR than what we saw earlier this year with the Alpha and Beta variants,” he added.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has said that the Delta variant of COVID-19 is quickly becoming the globally dominant variant of the disease, noting that it has already spread to more than 80 countries worldwide since it was first detected in India.
Meanwhile, the OCTA noted that the surges in areas outside the NCR are already starting to slow down.
“The increasing trends have slowed down and many LGUs showed one week negative growth rates,” said OCTA.
The areas include the cities of Bacolod, Iloilo, Cagayan de Oro, Baguio, Tacloban, Tagum, and Zamboanga.
Similarly, David noted how Davao City is also seeing a slow down in cases despite still registering the highest number of average daily new cases of 263.
“As for cases in Davao City, the trend has slowed down there also but still slightly increasing,” said David.
For the previous week, the average daily new cases in Davao City was at 251.
The average daily attack rate in Davao City also stood at 14.47.
Presidential spokesman Harry Roque said changing the current quarantine status in Metro Manila is “difficult” at the moment but did not give further details.
The Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) on the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases was set to meet on Monday afternoon to discuss the quarantine classifications of areas for the month of July.
Roque said the new classifications would likely be announced on Wednesday when President Duterte holds his second Talk to the People address this week.
“I will not prejudge but I think the current GCQ classification in Metro Manila will be difficult to change for now,” Roque said.
The IATF uses the average daily attack rate, average two week attack rate and health care utilization rate as basis for its recommendation on the upgrading or downgrading of CQ classifications.
Metro Manila and Bulacan are under GCQ with restrictions, while Cavite, Laguna and Rizal are under GCQ with high restrictions until the end of June.
Cabinet Secretary Karlo Nograles, in an interview with ABS-CBN Teleradyo, reiterated the importance of implementing and complying with common protocols be it minimum health standards, or border controls and requirements for entry to the country of travelers.
Nograles said that given the current threats from the different variants, especially the Delta and Delta plus strains that were first detected in India and which are said to be more infectious and more dangerous, it would be difficult to change current protocols and adopt new measures.
Besides, he added, the current protocols are working and have proven to be effective in containing the spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant. He noted that the 17 confirmed cases have been limited to returning overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) who initially observed the 10-day quarantine at a government facility and COVID-19 testing on the seventh day. — With Jocelyn Montemayor
