Experts warn of 10K daily cases nationwide
THE independent OCTA Research Team yesterday said the reproduction rate (R naught) in the National Capital Region (NCR) has risen to 1.15 in a span of one week, a “serious concern” which it said could trigger 10,000 cases a day in the next seven to 14 days.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has said that the R naught of COVID-19 should be less than 1.
Asked if the Delta variant of the coronavirus could be driving the increasing trend in the capital region, OCTA Research fellow Guido David said this could only be ascertained through genome sequencing.
He, however, said that this “is possible. We’re monitoring Delta variant’s trend. In other countries, its rate of transmission is very high.”
David quickly added, though, that “we cannot confirm that (the increase is caused by the Delta variant). Only through genome sequencing can we confirm that. We are, right now, just making assumptions.”
If the reproduction rate continues in the NCR, David said it would not be surprising if the country sees an average of 10,000 new cases per day soon.
“Yesterday’s (Wednesday’s) number of 6,000 is already considered high. We are expecting it will be more than 8,000. It means that cases are really increasing. We might see 10,000 by next week or next, next week,” he said.
The OCTA team reiterated that the trend in Metro Manila affects the situation nationwide.
David said the increasing trend of COVID-19 cases in the NCR is similar to the pattern seen earlier this year before cases surged in March.
David said OCTA’s latest COVID-19 Monitoring Report has classified Metro Manila as “high risk” because of its 1.15 reproduction number for the period of July 15 to 21.
“This is an increase of 0.24 from the previous week, when the reproduction number was 0.91,” said OCTA. “This is a cause for serious concern.”
It also noted that the average number of new daily COVID-19 cases in the NCR increased by 27 percent to 813 from 638 the previous week.
OCTA said the emerging trend is similar to the one seen in the region prior to the March surge.
“The trend in the reproduction over the past week shows a similar pattern with the trend from February 12 to 19, when the reproduction number increased from 1.06 to 1.30. That period signified the start of the surge in the NCR,” said OCTA.
But while a surge is already brewing, the OCTA said the trend can still be reversed through adequate government response.
“The increase in cases is still in its nascent stage, and can still be mitigated with proactive and decisive measures,” said OCTA. “There is still time to reverse this trend in the NCR. But we need to act collectively, decisively, and swiftly.”
Increased response, the group said, may include imposing stricter quarantine status, expanded testing, contact tracing, and regional and localized lockdowns.
OCTA said the national and local governments in the NCR should urgently increase restrictions and reduce capacity inside business establishments, lengthen curfew hours, reduce mobility of children and adolescents, and strictly monitor compliance to minimum public health standards.
“While it is not clear what is driving this increase in new cases without scientific basis, it is best to be cautious and be prepared for a possible surge,” said OCTA.
On the other hand, the group called on the public to strictly adhere to minimum public health standards, and reduce non-essential travel and social gatherings.
They also appealed to the public to get vaccinated as soon as possible.
“Our citizens need to realize that what we do will be crucial to mitigating this evolving surge in COVID-19 cases. Their vigilance and discipline are needed at this time,” said OCTA.
