The economy will see full recovery to pre-pandemic levels this year as the country learns to manage the new coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.
“This 2022 is when we will expect full recovery. Hopefully after Omicron, that’s the end or the tail-end of the pandemic , we can experience continuous growth,” said Trade Secretary Ramon Lopez in a television interview on Saturday.
Lopez’ optimism is buoyed by the 5.6-percent growth registered in 2021, a rebound from 2020, the height of the pandemic, when the economy contracted 9.6 percent..
“It’s still a GDP level that is slightly still below, about maybe three to 4 percent below the 2019 GDP level. What it says is at 5.6 percent full year growth in 2021, we only need to grow 4.8 percent this year to hit the 2019 level. 2022 is really the year where we will match the 2019 level by hitting 4.8 percent, “ Lopez said.
Prior to COVID-19, the economy was registering 6 to 8 recent in growth rate.
“(That shows) any reopening and easing of restriction, we immediately see the impact,” Lopez said.
“Since last year, we’ve seen a recovery in many of the indicators not only in the GDP, which started to post positive growth in the second quarter, and much faster growth in the third quarter, of 7.1 percent, the fastest in the Southeast Asian region and 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter, and that brought the full year GDP growth of 5.6 percent,” he added.
While agriculture seem to be a laggard due to the effects of the African swine fever and typhoons, industry and services are seen to pull up the numbers.
“Typically every quarter, (agriculture) growth has been really marginal, either marginal positive or marginal growth. In other words, in the vicinity of less than 1 (percent) one or if not 1 (percent). That’s the movement of agriculture,” he said.
Agriculture contracted 1.7 percent in 2021.
Lopez said industry and services went up 8.2 percent and manufacturing, which is part of industry, grew 8.3 percent.
Services like business process outsourcing, financial and transportation also grew 5.3 percent.
According to Lopez, exports and foreign direct investments (FDIs) in 2021 have recovered and surpassed 2019 levels in terms of growth.
Exports grew 15 percent versus 2019 and FDIs expanded 23 percent.
“All these are inputs to GDP and will have an impact on jobs and incomes. They will create a stronger economy on production and consumption,” Lopez said.
