ISRAEL risks facing a long and bloody insurgency if it defeats Hamas and occupies Gaza without a credible post-war plan to withdraw its troops and move toward the creation of a Palestinian state, US and Arab officials, diplomats and analysts said.
None of the ideas floated so far by Israel, the United States and Arab nations for the post-war administration of Gaza have managed to gain traction, according to two US and four regional officials as well as four diplomats familiar with the discussions, raising fears the Israeli military may become mired in a prolonged security operation.
As Israel tightens its control over northern Gaza, some officials in Washington and Arab capitals fear it is ignoring lessons from the US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan when swift military victories were followed by years of violent militancy.
If Gaza’s Hamas-run government is toppled, its infrastructure destroyed and its economy ruined, the radicalization of an enraged population could fuel an uprising targeting Israeli troops in the enclave’s narrow streets, diplomats and officials say.
Israel, the US and many Arab states agree that Hamas should be ousted after it launched a cross-border raid on Oct. 7 that killed some 1,200 people and took around 240 hostages. But there is no consensus on what should replace it.
Arab countries and Western allies have said a revitalized Palestinian Authority (PA) — which partially governs the West Bank — is a natural candidate to play a greater role in Gaza, home to some 2.3 million people.
But the credibility of the Authority — run by 87-year-old President Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah party – has been undermined by its loss of control over Gaza to Hamas in a 2007 conflict, its failure to halt the spread of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, and accusations of widespread corruption and incompetence.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at the weekend that the PA in its current form should not take charge of Gaza. He said the Israeli military was the only force capable of eliminating Hamas and ensuring that terrorism did not reappear. In the wake of Netanyahu’s comments, Israeli officials have insisted that Israel does not intend to occupy the Gaza Strip.
Mohammed Dahlan, who was the PA’s security chief for Gaza until it lost control of the strip to Hamas and has been suggested as a future leader of a post-war government there, said that Israel was mistaken if it believed that tightening its control of Gaza would end the conflict.
“Israel is an occupying force and the Palestinian people will deal with it as an occupying force,” Dahlan said in his office in Abu Dhabi, where he now lives. “None of the Hamas leadership or fighters will surrender. They will blow themselves up but won’t surrender.”
Dahlan has the backing of the influential United Arab Emirates to lead a post-war administration in Gaza, according to diplomats and Arab officials. But he said no one, certainly not him, would want to come in to govern a broken and demolished territory without a clear political path in sight.
“I have not seen any vision from Israel, America or the international community,” Dahlan said, calling for Israel to stop the war and to start serious talks on a two-state solution.
US President Joe Biden warned Netanyahu on Wednesday that occupying Gaza would be ‘a big mistake’. So far, the US and its allies have not seen any clear roadmap from Israel for its exit strategy from Gaza beyond the declared aim of eradicating Hamas, diplomats say. US officials are pressing Israel for realistic objectives and a plan for how to achieve them.
The Israeli government did not respond to requests for comment on its post-war plan in Gaza. Israel’s operation in the enclave — launched in retaliation for the Oct. 7 attack — has so far killed at least 13,000 people, including at least 5,500 children, according to the Hamas-run government in Gaza.
While insisting on Israel’s right to defend itself, some US officials are concerned that high civilian casualties could radicalize more Palestinians, driving new fighters into the arms of Hamas or future militant groups that might spring up to replace it, according to a source familiar with US policymaking.
More than a dozen Gazans interviewed by Reuters said the Israeli invasion was spawning a new generation of militants. Abu Mohammad, 37, a public servant from Jabalia refugee camp, said he would rather die than face Israeli occupation.
“I am not Hamas but in days of war, we are all one people, and if they finish off the fighters, we will take up the rifles and fight,” he told Reuters, declining to give his full name for fear of reprisals. “The Israelis may occupy Gaza, but they will never feel secure, not for a day.”
