NEW YORK- The US Energy Information Administration on Tuesday forecast a larger decline in natural gas output this year compared with earlier estimates, citing record-low prices earlier in 2024 that forced producers to curtail gas production.
US natural gas output will average around 103.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this year, the EIA said in its August edition of the short-term energy outlook report. That compares with 103.8 bcfd produced last year, and is a slight downgrade from a forecast of 103.5 bcfd in the July edition of the report.
Gas consumption is now expected to average 89.8 bcfd this year, up from the prior forecast of 89.4 bcfd.
For next year, the agency is forecasting production of 104.6 bcfd, down from its prior forecast of 105.2 bcfd. Consumption forecast for next year was unchanged at around 89.2 bcfd.
The EIA, in general, forecast tighter supply and demand balances for US oil markets this year, while also lowering its outlook for crude prices, according to its Short-Term Energy Outlook.
The EIA lifted its forecast for 2024 US oil demand by 100,000 bpd to 20.5 million bpd. It left its 2024 world oil demand growth forecast unchanged, with consumption increasing year-over-year by 1.1 million bpd to 102.9 million bpd.
US oil production, meanwhile, will grow by 300,000 bpd this year to a record 13.23 million bpd, the EIA said, slightly lower than its last forecast which saw production up by 320,000 bpd this year.
In the Permian basin, the largest US oilfield, production is set to grow by 10,000 bpd this month to 6.39 million bpd.
Even with a tighter market, the EIA lowered its outlook for West Texas Intermediate crude prices for the year to $80.21 a barrel, down 2.2 percent from its prior forecast of $82.03 a barrel. That follows recent sell-offs sparked by concerns about the economy, the agency said.
